Cilt 4, Sayı 7, Sayfalar 29 - 41 2014-02-05

TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜREKLİLİĞİ

Server DEMİRCİ [1]

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Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığındaki süreklilik test edilmiştir. Çalışmada 1991-2012 döneminde meydana gelen cari açıkların zaman serisi özellikleri kısa dönemli bağımlılık için birim kök testleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Türkiye’de cari açıkların süreklilik gösterdiğini ve gelecekte de açıkların süreceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bulgular ışığında, cari açık sorununa karşı yapısal önlemler alınması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Cari Açık, Süreklilik, Ardışık Bağlanım, Birim Kök, Yapısal Kırılma

Cari Açık, Süreklilik, Ardışık Bağlanım, Birim Kök, Yapısal Kırılma
  • BİNATLI, Ayla O. ve Sohrabji, Niloufer. (2008), “On the Optimality and Sustainability of Turkey’s Current Account”, Emprical Economics, 35(3), 543-568.
  • BİNATLI, Ayla O. ve Sohrabji, Niloufer. (2012), “Intertemporal Solvency of Turkey’s Current Account”, Panoeconomicus, 1, 89-104.
  • BUSSIERE, Matthieu – FRATZSCHER, Marcel ve MÜLER, Gernot J. (2004), “Current Account Dynamics in OECD and EU Acceding Countries: An Intertemporal Approach”, ECB Working Papers, No: 311, February.
  • BRISSIMIS, Sophocles N. – HONDROYIANNIS, George; PAPAZOGLOU, Christos; Tsaveas, Nicholas T. ve Vasardani, Melina A. (2010), “Current Account Determinants and External Sustainability in Periods of Structural Change”, ECB Working Papers, No: 1243, September.
  • CHİNN, Menzie D. ve PRASAD, Eswar S. (2003), “Medium-term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration”, Journal of International Economics, 59, 47-76.
  • CHINN, Menzie D. ve WEI, Shang-Jin. (2008), “A Faith-based Initiative Meets tne Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?”, NBER Working Papers, No: 14420.
  • CHIQUIAR, Daniel – NORIEGA, Antonio E. ve RAMOS-FRANCIA, Manuel. (2007), “A Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience”, Banco de Mexico Working Papers, No: 2007-01, January.
  • CHRICHTON, Daiel R. (2004), “Persistent Episodes of Current Account Imbalances: An Empirical Analysis”, Bates College Papers.
  • CLOWER, Erica ve ITO, Hiro. (2011), “The Persistence and Determinants of Current Account Balances: The Implications for Global Rebalancing”, Mimeo, December.
  • FREUND, Caroline ve WARNOCK, Frank. (2005), “Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall?”, NBER Working Papers, No: 11823, December.
  • FUHRER, Jeffrey C. (2009), “Inflation Persistence”, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Working Papers, No: 2009-14, November.
  • Glick, Reuven. ve Rogoff, Kenneth S. (1995), “Global Versus Country-Spesific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 35(1), 159-192.
  • GOSH, Atish R. – TERRONES, Marco ve ZETTELMEYER, Jeromin. (2008), “Exchange Rate Regimes and External Adjustment: New Answers to an Old Debate”, IMF, May.
  • GOSH, Atish R. – OSTRY, Jonathan D. ve TSANGARIDES, Charalambos. (2010), “Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System”, IMF Occasional Paper, No: 270.
  • GÖKTAŞ, Özlem – TUNALI, Çiğdem B. ve Hepsağ, Aycan. (2011), “The Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in the Presence of Structural Shift: The Case of Turkey”, Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 11, 132-141.
  • GÜLCAN, Yaprak ve ÖNEL, Gülcan. (2009), “The Sustainability of Turkish Current Account Deficit with Structural Breaks”, Review of Social Economic and Business Studies, 11, 1-13.
  • HERRMANN, Sabine. (2009), “Do We Really Know that Flexible Exchange Rates Facilitate Current Account Adjustment? Some New Empirical Evidence for CEE Countries”, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper Series, No: 1, Economic Studies No: 22/2009.
  • HOFFMANN, Mathias. (1999), “Current Accounts and Persistence of Global and Country-Specific Shocks: Is Investment Really too Volatile?” EUI Working Papers, No: 99/25, July.
  • HOLİNSKİ, Nils – KOOL, Klemens ve MUYSKEN, Joan. (2012), “Persistent Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Causes and Consequences”, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review, January/February, 1-20.
  • KALYONCU, Hüseyin. (2005), “Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach”, Prague Economic Papers, 1, 82-88.
  • KENT, Christopher ve CASHİN, Paul. (2003), “The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: Persistence Matters”, IMF Working Papers, No: WP/03/143, July.
  • MİCHAIL, Ossama – EBERWEIN, Curtis J. ve Handa, Jagdish. (2005), “Testing for Persistence in Aggregate and Sectoral Canadian Unemployment”, Applied Economics Letters, 12(14), 893-898.
  • ÖZER, Mustafa ve COŞKUN, İnci O. (2011), “Sustainability of Turkish Current Account Deficit in the Post-Crisis Period”, MIBES Transactions, 5(2), 67-82.
  • SHI, Kang. (2011), “Shocks Persistence and Current Account Dynamics”, Economics Bulletin, 31(3), 2260-2271.
  • TAYLOR, Alan M. (2002), “A Century of Current Account Dynamics”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, 725-748.
  • TIPPKÖTTER, Marius. (2010), “Global Imbalances and the Current Account Adjustment Process: An Empirical Analysis”, DIW Berlin Discussion Papers, No: 1011, June.
  • UÇAN, Okyay ve PUTUN, Murat. (2011), “Examining the Sustainability of External Deficits in Turkey”, Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 9, 75-82.
  • www.tcmb.gov.tr, (01.06.2012)
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Yazar: Server DEMİRCİ
E-posta: server_demirci@yahoo.com

Bibtex @ { marufacd4573, journal = {Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi}, issn = {1309-1123}, address = {Marmara Üniversitesi}, year = {2014}, volume = {4}, pages = {29 - 41}, doi = {}, title = {TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜREKLİLİĞİ}, language = {tr}, key = {cite}, author = {DEMİRCİ, Server} }
APA DEMİRCİ, S . (2014). TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜREKLİLİĞİ. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 4 (7), 29-41. Retrieved from http://e-dergi-marmara.dergipark.gov.tr/marufacd/issue/503/4573
MLA DEMİRCİ, S . "TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜREKLİLİĞİ". Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 4 (2014): 29-41 <http://e-dergi-marmara.dergipark.gov.tr/marufacd/issue/503/4573>
Chicago DEMİRCİ, S . "TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜREKLİLİĞİ". Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 4 (2014): 29-41
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜREKLİLİĞİ AU - Server DEMİRCİ Y1 - 2014 PY - 2014 N1 - DO - T2 - Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 29 EP - 41 VL - 4 IS - 7 SN - 1309-1123- M3 - UR - Y2 - 2017 ER -
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